Water GenbuTier 1
at GG Adelaide DTR Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 25.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.1% | +5.9 |
| Fire Suited | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.3% | -25.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +20.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Water Ciel | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Candlelight Hourglass | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Young Beastbonder | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |